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Waning and Wandering Interest
4 years ago - Edited 4 years ago1,870 words
I'm really close now to the point where I can release a playable demo of Atonal Dreams... which should be exciting, but I've had a lot of days recently - today included - where I struggle to get to work due to worries about the waning interest in this blog and - presumably by extension - the game.

I'm not sure which metrics to use to gauge interest in the game or to predict its financial success. This blog is the best thing I have since I feel that people who are really interested might keep checking it, but - as I've pointed out a few times - the views have been gradually dropping with each new post. Shouldn't it be the other way around, if the game was really interesting?

I made a graph of the views on my posts over time:



It graphs up to 5000 views; the two white bars are the only two posts - years ago - which surpassed that. Gold ones exceeded 2000 views, orange exceeded 1000, and the blue ones failed to hit 500 views.

The most recent gold one was the post announcing the Steam release of MARDEK. The gold one before that was talking about the progress with that before it was ready.

Interestingly, there was more activity on the blog when I was ranting about my insanity while I was studying Psychology at university. Maybe some kind of zoo/freakshow allure, or something, or maybe I was talking about things that resonated with people while what I'm talking about now is a very specific project that either interests you or doesn't. Views have been gradually decreasing the more I've focused on games development, and even more as I've started putting more effort into promotion on Twitter etc, which is the opposite of what I expected and hoped for.

I'm always wondering about the causes of this, and there could be many. Maybe the way people engage with the internet is changing and anything that's not social media/discord/whatever is getting less attention. Maybe only older fans check creators' websites, and that audience is naturally dispersing with the passage of time. Maybe it's because I'm posting more frequently now so the posts are replaced more quickly. Maybe some of the site issues a few months ago scared some people away.

The most obvious cause though seems to be that most people who are aware of me played MARDEK during their childhood and wanted a nostalgic fix of that, and once they were able to get it on Steam, that itch was scratched and they lost interest. Everything's gone downhill since that release. I'm not exactly attracting an audience interested in my current stuff since - apart from Sindrel Song, which I never promoted and which was probably too weird to appeal to people anyway - it's not as if I've actually released anything in years.

So hopefully it'll be a different story when I do release something and start building a new audience... though the failure of Sindrel Song and the waning interest in these blog posts is definitely making me worry about whether I'll ever manage that. I hoped releasing MARDEK on Steam would draw in interest to its spiritual successor that I'm currently working on, though the opposite's been the case, unfortunately.

Feels like the advantage I had of an old devoted audience has been completely lost... though maybe in time people will start wondering again and check what I'm doing now. Or maybe after reading the plans for MARDEK that urge to find out what happens next has gone and there'll be no reason for them to. Hmm.

There are all kinds of things I should be doing, like promoting more, or even running a public discord that keeps people around, and I feel that I'll probably have to devote some focused attention to all that soon. I'm unsure though whether to do it before releasing a demo, or after; maybe if I have just a trailer to entice attention in an upcoming demo, that might be more of a hook than advertising a demo that people are able to play if they want to. I don't know. I'll need to look into it.



I have been using Twitter more, and following and engaging more on there (baby steps), but it's difficult to tell how much of a difference it's making. Obviously it's not helping this blog! Annoyingly Twitter's analytics only seem to work for the past ~90 days, for which my graph looks like this:



They're going up, I suppose, and there are some spikes recently that are much higher than anything previously. Being on Twitter is making me aware though of how immensely oversaturated the indie games scene is, and how many people are doing exactly what I'm doing. How hard it is to stand out. So many amazing-looking games out there, so many dreams that are sure to end up crushed in the end, sadly.



I notice my own attention wandering a lot recently. It'd be a different story if attention were building as Atonal Dreams was progressing, but instead I just keep wondering "is this game just not interesting? Should I be doing something else?!", and sticking with it despite that feels delusional or foolish. It's hard to keep focused or find the motivation some days, like today.



Last year, I worked on a game called Belief, which eventually had many of its features gradually absorbed into Atonal/Divine Dreams. I can't remember why I decided to change course with that after doing quite a bit of work on it, but I think it was because it wasn't getting as much attention or feedback as I'd hoped, so I was led to believe that it wasn't interesting enough and I should change course to avoid another Sindrel Song flop.

But ∞ the post here showcasing a demo video of Belief ∞ currently has 3,209 views, and the video itself on Youtube has 862 views.

By comparison, ∞ this weekend's post about Atonal Dreams ∞ currently has 274 views, and the linked Youtube video has just 228.

It's not exactly a fair comparison since the latest post is only around 3 days old, while the other's been up for almost a year, and was pinned to the main blog page for most of that time and linked to from the Games page that apparently exists on this site, but most things get most of their views within a couple of days of posting. I seem to remember the Belief video getting maybe around 600 views back when it was new, and I thought that's far too few for me to stick with the game so I should do something else.

I actually really like Belief still, and there's an urge to just return to that instead, or at least a similar derivative. I find the purely social battles more amusing, the thought of making just human models less taxing, and I like the thought of a game where you can gather a whole crowd of followers eventually by winning them over in these social 'battles'. But I went with the straightforward violence angle I have in Atonal Dreams because it seemed like that was what people wanted.

Also though, ∞ the post about the Steam release of Memody: Sindrel Song ∞ currently has 2,840 views, but the game only has just over 100 sales. So it's not as if there's an obvious correlation between a post's popularity on this blog and how well it's able to sell. ∞ The post about the MARDEK Steam release ∞ has 3,785 views currently, and the game's sold 1,484 copies (and the number keeps growing, slowly but surely; it's getting around as many sales each month as Sindrel Song got in total).



I've also been thinking a lot about the difference between games you can 'just play', where you can just explore a world for a few minutes at a time whenever the mood takes you, and linear, narrative experiences with set characters. Atonal Dreams is obviously the latter, though from seeing how many other indie devs are making procedural, non-narrative 'just-playable' games, I've had an urge to make my own.

Something where instead of following the story of a prewritten character, you make your own custom character and just go on an adventure in the world that's been made for you. Something that could be gradually updated with more content without breaking any storytelling.

I have a couple of ideas for specific games like that set in the Alora Fane world that I've been gradually writing notes about over the past few weeks whenever an idea comes to me.

It seems like getting big youtubers to play your games is a big factor in how much they sell, and more of them would likely be interested in something where they could make a character of their own and just mess around. I've written about all this before.

So currently I'm having to fight the urge to abandon what I'm doing and pursue one of those ideas instead...


I'm not going to, though. I'm going to stick with Atonal Dreams until the end, since it's not designed to be very long anyway. Completion is months off rather than years off; I've mostly finished the most time-consuming parts.

I wonder how much of a correlation there is between the number of people actively following a game during its development, and the number of people that buy it in the end. I suspect that most people who find any game do so after it's been released, or immediately before, rather than months in advance. And they presumably find it either via word of mouth or through some press promotion or something. Probably youtubers, streamers, etc.

I've talked about all of this a bunch of times before, so I know much of what I'm saying in this post is nothing new. As always, it's mostly just vomiting out words to process them, stop them spinning distractingly around in my mind, and get accustomed to what I need to do next and to motivate myself to do what I need to do now. It's not as if I have colleagues to do this sort of discussing with, or an employer to make all the decisions for me!

I need to spend the rest of this week polishing what I have, then I'll need to spend a week just looking exclusively into what the next best step would be: do I release a demo then try to promote that demo, or just a trailer and then try to use that to hint at an upcoming demo? Do I even do a demo at all? A closed beta test first? Lots to think about that I really should have been thinking more about sooner, but I've been so busy focusing on actual development! It's hard juggling everything at once.

For now, I need to find the motivation to address a whole bunch of irritating little issues I've been putting off since they're the main things left to do!

15 COMMENTS

mount201046~4Y
I'd be honest, though, Tobias, sometimes the things you talk about are a bit hard to digest (because it's really you thinking through writing). It's also a bit hard to think of comments to respond to your posts, so there's a bit less that us fans could do to assure you that we're here... That's part of what a Discord can help with, because it's not as formal as filling up a form and clicking "Add Comment"; instead you have a more "open to the room" setting... Would it help if you had people give you feedback instantly that way?
Kupo Game's Discord, despite being also mostly famous for a set of Flash games, seems active and has a fair bit of members. So I wonder if it's true that people have forgotten about you just because you were famous only for Flash games.
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Tobias 1115~4Y
This is why I'm using view counts rather than comment counts to gauge interest; I know there might not be much to say and it takes effort. Currently it looks like significantly fewer people are even reading what I'm writing, though. And it gets to me because more people were reading before, so something's changed somewhere.

I know that I need to set up the Discord, but while it might be simpler for other people to just pop in, I have to worry about finding moderators, community drama, and every morning I have to brace myself for some new community issue I might have to deal with. Once I open the doors to the public, I feel like I'll have to be 'always on guard' in a way I absolutely don't miss from the old Fig Hunter days.

Mr Epicbattlefantasyguy, as I believe he's legally called, has been actively publishing games in his series since the Good Old Days, whereas I never continued directly with MARDEK, so I'd say there's a big difference between his community and mine (plus he's made a comfortable amount of money from his games, unlike me).
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Dingding32167~4Y
I do think that the long development cycle tends to put people off in the meantime while all the nuts and bolts are being hammered out. This might not be the case with playable demos where people leap onto freebies, but still more or less holds true in my mind. It's a time of instant gratification, and just to remind you how many random people commented "ooh I haven't heard anything from you in a long time/ bothered to check but I saw that MARDEK was re-released on Steam!" and stuff like that.

I think that it's inevitably that your interest wanes over time, you're a person who's excited by new ideas so working on one thing all the time isn't really ideal for that. I do understand the pressure of wanting to get something out, and hopefully you'll find your flow of concentration again, but taking breaks to work on other creative projects and improve your skills like before is a good idea too! A few more weeks or months doesn't really make a huge difference to us, though I know it does to you.

The waning numbers over time probably reflects the niche of Flash being diminished over time, and the fact that websites like this aren't that easy to randomly come across. I think the communities you maintained just before focusing on solely the blog also drew people here during that period of time. Psychology (and art) is also a more widespread interest than old Flash games as well, probably. There's a big move of gaming communities and information to centralized places like Discord and Steam, which I'm sure you know about, so gaming-specific activity is likely much higher there. It's worth branching out, but I can see it being overwhelming to try and work out if you feel like it's all new and strange and scary to you.

Can only repeat my well-wishes for you and your games, remember the 10000 hour rule and keep going :) You'll get there, even with skills like promotion!
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Tobias 1115~4Y
I don't recall my old psychology posts (if they could even be called that; they were mostly insane personal rants rather than, say, 'wellness tips' or whatever) ever attracting new people. It always seemed that essentially the entirety of my audience was people who knew me from MARDEK or Fig Hunter. A lot of people stuck around for the duration of Sindrel Song's development, even though few bought it in the end, but then the views dropped noticeably soon after MARDEK's Steam release. So it seems like most people who ever checked this site were just curious to see if they could get some more MARDEK, and stopped checking once they got that.

It's a shame that the nostalgia is so specific to that one experience, though, and that a new game in a similar spirit doesn't seem enough like an extension of that to be worth sticking around for for a lot of people.

It's not so much that Discord is new and scary, it's more that once I set that up publically, I'll have to be always vigilant about what's going on with it. Waking up worrying about what new community drama I have to face today isn't something I miss at all from the Fig Hunter days (and it's left lingering scars).

I wish I had 10,000 hours to pour into mastering marketing! I'll try to do what I can, though. I certainly feel more knowledgeable and less naive now than I did when I released Sindrel Song, though it'll be interesting to see if the numbers reflect that in the end. I wouldn't be so worried if that hadn't been such a flop, and if everything I read and watched didn't suggest such flops are the norm.
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mount201046~4Y
Well, you seem to have gotten comfortable with Twitter, despite that also having it's own risks (e.g. someone could scream at you "MARDEK 4 WHEN??")... I'm just saying it's not impossible for you to get used to new things.... though I do understand that you are uncomfortable *to start* with the Discord thing, and your fear of it might actually lead to your fears coming true instead of disproving them...

For what it's worth, as an Discord chat moderator, I've tried to help the developer whose chat I moderate avoid and prevent drama from occurring that might cause him to become distracted from his game development. I think any moderators that you appoint would want to do the same thing for you. Otherwise, it's a huge failure of the moderators.

And honestly, the fact that you have fewer viewers right now might help you with the Discord thing. That means that whomever views the post in which you announce your Discord server is likely to be actually interested in your work rather than a random passersby, and thus less likely to cause trouble.
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Tobias 1115~4Y
Being on Twitter is like going and shouting out in a park where a bunch of other people are doing the same, while a Discord would be like inviting people to a party at my house, which I'd have had to organise. If I'm not in the mood, I can just not go to the park, but it feels harder to just take time off when it's something I have some degree of ownership over.

Most of my concerns about it come from running communities in the past though, which caused an enormous amount of stress. It's not something I'm eager to revive, though I know I'll have to. I'll just have to hope I can find some good moderators, but chances are I'll be worrying about what they might do as much as - or more than - what the members might do (would they shape the community according to what they want rather than what I'd want? Should what I want actually matter?).
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Wolf21~4Y
I've been absent for a quite a while (though I suppose recent years I've definitely been more absent than not) and I'm not sure I have a specific reason as to why. I think everyone grows and evolves and sometimes that means they become distant to things they once were really connected to.

That aside, I did do some marketing work in recent years and can maybe offer some insights into what you're seeing here. I may be completely off the mark but from what I've seen, Alora Fane the website is a fairly closed system. The only major link from outside that I can see is from Twitter, and click-throughs from Twitter are likely quite rare because you're offering an abbreviated version of your updates there. Which is fine! In face you can see that overall your Twitter has been slowly gaining more and more interest (albeit slowly, but that's how things go), and while that's sure to swing downwards sometimes the overall trend over time will be upwards.

While there's definitely a relationship between having a fanbase or a significant presence online it's not the crux of whether or not a game does well or badly. There's some marketing, a bit of hard work, and a lot of luck.

When you were launching games on platforms like Kongregate you had an easy way for word of mouth to spread, and an easy way for people to find your games- which rose well above the muck on those sorts of sites, and you had an established fanbase on your forums who would all give you the 'views' or 'plays' and ratings to give you a lot of movement. As you're aware now, it's a completely different game with Steam and launching a game today.

There are ways of doing free marketing campaigns, but they're a lot of effort with no real guaranteed return. Heck, even costly marketing campaigns are no guarantee of gaining a lot of interest in a product. You have a good website and some SEO nonsense might help a bit but even that won't be amazing because there aren't a whole lot of people searching for indie games on google when there are other stores and platforms to find games through. As you know from the Twitter indie dev scene, it's really hard to market an indie game without an established presence, capital, or a gimmick that makes live-streamers want to play it.

Discord is a good option, but you're right about needing moderators and people that you trust. I feel like you have that here these days though, people like Mania who you have a rapport with and are attentive and level headed (I'm sure there are others, he just leaps out to me- though I have no idea whether he'd want to do that). The informality of a discord might attract some more people, or it might stay like this - a small knit community of people who genuinely are interested in your work.

What you should put stock in is your work. There's always going to be a possibility that you'll fail to meet your goals, to not do as well as you hope or plan for, but you can't let that dissuade you.

I think the timing of a demo- if you were to do one- would be critical. I think you should finish the game first, maybe even get some people to playtest and give feedback so you can polish it as much as you can, then do a demo a month or so before release. Having as good, and as polished, a game as possible is the best way forward, and making multiple smaller games going forward would start to bring back that fanbase you had and increase the chances of gaining more widespread attention (I think Sindrel Song was probably a bit 'off the beaten path' for widespread success). Having a good plan for release, or for the period of time leading up to release is key to 'finishing strong' and releasing with as much momentum as you can.

I genuinely wish you the best of luck. I really like what I've seen of Atonal Dreams so far, and I think it has a lot of appeal while being really unique. I might not visit here as much as I should but I will definitely be buying Atonal Dreams wherever and whenever it is released.
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Tobias 1115~4Y
It seemed as if essentially all of the audience were people who were once Fig Hunter members, or at least people who played MARDEK when they were young, for whom being a part of that community or playing that game was a big part of their formative years. I know websites like this aren't exactly going to be drawing in huge new audiences due to how the internet works these days, but this gets to me because I released the MARDEK port to Steam hoping the existing audience might become more excited about the spiritual successor that I was working on, but the dip in views here soon after that suggests most people don't care about anything other than that specific experience that they grew up with. So releasing the port had the opposite effect I'd hoped for, and it feels like the advantage I had over unknown indie devs is lost, so now I have to face the same challenges of getting noticed that everyone else who's just starting out does. Maybe.

Marketing is going to be a huge ordeal, and I'm really going to need to properly research it this time. I've already learned quite a bit from passive observations this year, but I'll need to devote myself to it for a while, and I'll need all the help I can get from whoever's willing to offer their wisdom for free since I have a budget of nothing so I can't exactly pay for a marketing campaign. It's all incredibly daunting. I'm not aiming for millions of sales or anything, but if I could get 1000 or so, that'd be amazing.

Mania said he doesn't want to be a moderator! I should probably choose moderators sooner rather than later though. Maybe I'll ask again on the weekend if anyone wants to join from here, then maybe I could grow the invite-only community a bit, choose moderators from it, and finally open the public doors.

Are you basing the suggestion about demo timing on data you're familiar with? I've read and seen a lot of conflicting information about that. I had the idea to release a short demo - which would only really contain some battles to fight - early so then I could tweak the mechanics according to use feedback before progressing further, to make sure I'm actually making something fun before wasting more months on it. Plus it seemed like if there was a demo available for most of the development, then I could push people to it for months. The aim would be to get them to wishlist the game, so when it was released they'd be informed and would hopefully buy it. This seems to be what a lot of indie devs do, from what I've seen, though I'll need to research what's actually effective rather than what seems common at a glance.
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Wolf21~4Y
I was never here for Mardek- I always loved the community, and looked up to you, I felt it had so much to offer and in the early days I thought nearly everyone was wonderful. But then, I was quite young and I was probably the one who irritated others (yourself probably included). I think I coincidentally stopped visiting nearly as often once Mardek was released but it wasn't related to that in any way- though I suppose I don't really have a specific reason- though I did move cities and get a new job around that time. In any case, from my intimate knowledge of a single one of your viewers here, I know for a fact that Mardek didn't have an effect, so you should definitely chalk it up to coincidence, or something... Yes.

I based my comment about demo timing on a few things, a game I kickstarted, a few early access alpha / beta games that released as demos before moving to a paid release, as well as some less related software demos that were mistimed and then rendered far less effective. So it's definitely just my opinion and not anything really concrete. Oh, also the Beast Signer alpha build you did back in the day, I noticed a massive spike in membership on the forums when that was made public, but the attention it drew over the following months diminished significantly (when I think you were still actively working on the game... though I'm not sure as I think I beta tested that one so my timeline might be off) - but that one is more of a 'what I remember noticing on the forums while having a poor memory'.

That's a good idea regarding the demo encouraging people to wishlist the game. I just fear that some will lose interest over time if development takes longer than expected- but again my experience of that is subjective and probably related to when I experienced tangentially related issues when working in marketing.

If you still have the email addresses of people's Fighunter accounts, depending on how you feel about it, you might be able to send a pensive, 'I know you're probably not interested these days, but I've got a demo of my game' email. Then, with fingers crossed, you might have a small portion of those former members coming to look at the demo.
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purplerabbits148~4Y
In terms of sales, It could be bolstered a bit with steam sales. I know there are people waiting to buy games only when they are on sale.

I feel that even though Quarantine has been around for about 6 months. There hasn't been a huge increase in things being created/released.
I remember seeing on twitter how a creator was adressing a fan for questioning why there is an actual decrease in the amount of stuff put out instead of an increase. The fan assumed that with quarantine there woukd be an increase in stuff because the creator has more time to create stuff. However, the creator has stuff in the background like uncertainty of security and other stuff like rent to worry about, so the creator js working on securing housing and so forth instead of creating.

Maybe something aimilar is happening to the amount of viewers reading your blog?
I'm sorta in the camp of not being able to check as frequently as I used to.
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Tobias 1115~4Y
I keep meaning to put both MARDEK and Sindrel Song on sale for a week, but Monday seems the best day for that, and I keep forgetting! I wonder if I can set it up in advance... I'll have a look at that now.

Looks like I can! I set up a 20% off sale for MARDEK for next week. Maybe I'll alternate between that and Sindrel Song, and maybe Sindrel Song will get more than the paltry number of sales it has now since I don't think I've ever run a sale for it and many more people have wishlisted it than bought it.

I'm surprised to hear people are noticing a reduction in production of things during this time! I've been feeling like I've missed my chance to take advantage of it since I'm taking so long, but maybe that's not the case.

The views started significantly dropping off after the MARDEK port, so I'd be surprised if the other factors were as significant as that one in explaining what's going on with the views. But maybe that and the pandemic together isn't the best combination.
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MontyCallay101~4Y
Interesting graph! I wonder if you can also tell how much traction the posts got over time, as opposed to in total. The MARDEK release announcement probably still gets some views every few days, whereas a general update may attract a more short-lived interest.

I was one of the people that enjoyed reading about your life at university! You're an interesting person (legitimately and positively, not in a "freakshow" kind of way) and it wasn't all downs either, even if the bad moments clearly stuck with you for good reasons. I think people learned quite a bit from when you recounted your psychology material as well!

I was wondering if something you could do to make discussion more active in the comments here would be to allow guest comments... Looking back at old posts, a lot of the people who commented on Disqus were guest commenters, and having to make an account before commenting may be a mental hurdle for some people. Though perhaps that's a good thing that naturally selects out "low quality" commenters? Different ways to look at it, I guess.

Have I said that I really like the homepage redesign yet? Well, I do! I think it really does a good job of showing the variety of what you do as an artist and what you've made so far. Maybe also a "latest music composed" section? People really like your music!

The only thing I noticed is that this post now looks misaligned compared to the others - [LINK]&height=444 , though the link isn't displayed correctly.

And for what it's worth, I'm interested in being a moderator on the Discord! From what I've seen so far, I think I have a decent understanding of what the tone and nature of the server should be like, and I'd be glad to help with that.
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TheJop32~4Y
As someone who has been following you for years, it's been very disheartening to see you get so far in a game's development many times only for you to never release it (I'm sure this is worse for you though). It's not as bad on this site, but half of the Fig Hunter games page was like a graveyard of abandoned games. I hope you can release this game; even if it is not successful, it will greatly enhance your ability to release and promote games in the future. It will also keep you relevant; even if a game is not amazing it will at least keep a developer relevant in players' minds, which is especially important for an independent game developer. It will also get you a little bit of income which is always good!

I don't expect you to lower your standard of quality or anything, but if you were invested enough in a game to get it this far I think you deserve having the game see the light of day.
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JohnnyV1235~4Y
I stopped reading your blog when COVID happened. Did not consciously make that choice. If i had to guess why others have left it would be the combination of your psychological issues not being as interesting lately (which is a good thing!) and you not releasing a game with mass appeal in a long time.

Sindrel Song may be a sales failure but it is not a failure because you finally released something!! You never know if one of your games becomes a hit then sales for it could increase.

Atonal Dreams I think will be much more up my alley if you actually finish it.
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original24~4Y
While sometimes it may be good to abandon some project, it is never good to make a habit out of quitting. It is good to hear that you are making progress, keep up the good work.

There are many paths to visibility on the internet, but as you noticed, talking about game development progress without finishing the product probably isn't the optimal one. I can see how psychology-related posts could be more enticing to some.

Social battles would be cool if with the interesting mechanics. Sounds like high risk, high reward innoviative idea.
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